Steel market tendency analysis
As is known from the big banks in Shanghai, discount rate of the bank acceptance is rising up to 11.31‰ from 19th, September. Compared to the one 8.58‰ in 9th September ,it increased to 31.82‰,which refreshing the historical record. Financial cost is increased accordingly, which will make it harder for the real economy. Recently, there are more and more phenomenon like boss discarding the company and ignore the financial situation , the secret missing of the debtor, the crashing of the folk capital chain, causing great anxious on steel market and unease on the merchant.
From macron-economical aspect, Europe and America financial crisis light up the high light of global economical recessionary. Economic surrounding is worse relatively. Internationally, there are demotion of the Europe and America banks; in Euro zone, the increasing of GDP in second season is lowering by large scale, creating the lowest increasing speed since 2009. There is slow down in most of the Europe and America economy. Domestically, statistic from HSBC of PMI index is 49.4. Second fall after rising up, nevertheless, it is lower 50 then the third Month. Seen from capital operational, it is still very tight on capital. But analysis from current information, monetary policy won’t be adjusted in short time .withdrawal of the currency from circulation will be still in existence.
Demanding from downstream enterprises was affected by macro-economy and capital factors, so it is with the real estate, rail way, machinery. Though, the operational rate of the guaranteed housing projects creates the highest, but it does no good on the pulling of demanding of steel products. After the publishing of the restrained buying on real estate in China’s second and third tier cities, investment and development keep increasing with high speed. Generally speaking the average price is on the high rise. Self raised funds among the developers occupied a large part, and the index of prosperity in steel market refreshing the lowest point.
During the national holiday, the sales figure on the commodity houses in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, such large cities, is very gloomy. The increasing speed of the machinery back to normal state. Among shipbuilding line, globally, the price and ordering amount is on decreasing. It is hard to change the declining tendency of shipbuilding line. Rail way construction, the need on the steel products is in stagnation.
After all, steel market in downstream industry will take on a week pattern, and it will do little influence on the pulling of the steel price.
In conclusion, with the continuous declining of the steel price in the end of this September, plus the increasing of the inventory goods during the holidays, all which makes it harder for selling. Under the circumstances of no interference from outside, it is estimated that back from the holiday, the market will be in weakness. In the meantime, considering recently the price of the raw materials appears a declining tendency. The whole market structure will take on a pattern from stable to decline. Periodically better off will possibly in December.